Wyoming/Seats
Welcome, Wyoming progressives! It might seem bleak, but I'm here with effectively a strategy guide for the 93 seats which encompass your state legislature (62 house seats, 31 senate seats). I've made sections for the state house and state senate that detail which seats can be won with what candidates in the hopes that Wyoming Democrats and progressives can form a strong opposition!
Each seat in the state house of Wyoming represents approximately 9,350 people. As such, individual canvassers can make a HUGE difference. According to this map, various seats have voted in composite from 2016-2020 in various ways. I'm going to break down every seat and categorize them by how they can be won, while linking to their associated Ballotpedia articles. It should also be noted that seats are just very... weird, here, with pillars of the community often able to make a big difference against the natural partisan lean of districts. As such, I'm going to make four distinctions in categories
- Blue districts: These seats are safely blue and will most likely elect a Democrat if a Democrat runs. Naturally, there are very few of these in Wyoming's state legislature. If the district voted Democrat on average by more than 10%, I'll class them here.
- Competitive districts: These seats are a fight for either party. If Democrats or Republicans came within about 15% of each other, I'll class them here.
- Reach districts: These seats usually vote Republican, but a sufficiently-motivated Democrat can swing this district on the state level. If Democrats earned at least 30% of the vote, I'll class them here.
- Red districts: Probably not impossible for a Democrat to win, but very unlikely. These districts are what give Wyoming its redness.
Republicans have a supermajority in both the state house (57-5) and state senate (29-2) as of the 2023 legislative session, giving Republicans a statewide trifecta (as of 1/28/24).
Wyoming State House
Here is a link to a map of Wyoming's state house, as depicted by Dave's redistricter: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::483d3157-343b-451f-9a0e-aebef749205f
Currently, the Wyoming state house consists of 5 Democrats and 57 Republicans. The Democrat seats are the four "Blue" seats as well as HD-14 in the "Competitive" section", an R+2ish seat. Trey Sherwood was able to win by 1% in 2020, then by almost 10% in 2022 for re-election. When Democrats win here, they win *for good* and singlehandedly turn districts more blue. They're a shining beacon of hope in a sea of despair.
Blue State House Seats: HD-16 in particular is the bluest house seat in Wyoming, 68.7% Dem to 27.4% Rep. If any seat in Wyoming could field a progressive candidate, this would probably be it.
HD-13, HD-16, HD-23, HD-45.
Competitive State House Seats:
HD-11, HD-14, HD-22, HD-33, HD-41, HD-44.
Reach State House Seats:
HD-7, HD-9, HD-12, HD-43, HD-46, HD-54, HD-56, HD-61.
Red State House Seats:
HD-1, HD-2, HD-3, HD-4, HD-5, HD-6, HD-8, HD-10, HD-15, HD-17, HD-18, HD-19, HD-20, HD-21, HD-24, HD-25, HD-26, HD-27, HD-28, HD-29, HD-30, HD-31, HD-32, HD-34, HD-35, HD-36, HD-37, HD-38, HD-39, HD-40, HD-42, HD-47, HD-48, HD-49, HD-50, HD-51, HD-52, HD-53, HD-55, HD-57, HD-58, HD-59, HD-60, HD-62.
Wyoming State Senate
Here is a link to a map of Wyoming's state senate, as depicted by Dave's redistricter: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e2618faf-bad1-4bb1-9a85-7e1c2ccdef91
The state senate holds elections once every four years, with even-numbered districts being up for election during presidential years and odd-numbered districts on midterm years. Currently, only the two "Blue" seats have Democrats, as would be expected from the partisan lean of the seats.
Blue State Senate Seats:
SD-9, SD-17.
Competitive State Senate Seats: These four seats in particular had Republicans getting around 5-15% more of the vote - red, but not insurmountably-so.
SD-7,SD-8, SD-10, SD-25.
Reach State Senate Seats:
SD-4, SD-28, SD-31.
Red State Senate Seats:
SD-1,SD-2, SD-3, SD-5, SD-6, SD-11, SD-12, SD-13, SD-14, SD-15, SD-16, SD-18, SD-19, SD-20, SD-21, SD-22, SD-23, SD-24, SD-26, SD-27, SD-29, SD-30.
Current Best-case scenario in 2024-2026
I'm not going to sugarcoat it - there'd have to be a major blue wave and a LOT of coordinated efforts to make Wyoming marginally less red on a state level, and the gains would be hard to quantify as Wyoming Republicans would still have a supermajority. However, for the purposes of dreaming big, I'm going to make maps of a hypothetical scenario under which Democrats flip as many seats as they can.
Assuming we flip all the competitive seats - State legislature in January 2027 would be 10 Democrats to 52 Republicans in the house and 6 Democrats to 25 Republicans in the state senate.
Assuming we flip all the reach seats - State legislature in January 2027 would be 18 Democrats to 44 Republicans in the state house and 9 Democrats to 22 Republicans in the state senate.
This might not feel like much, as Republicans would still have a supermajority even in the best-case scenario, but every seat taken from a right-winger is one less seat of power they have to pass crappy policies with. If a once-in-a-blue-moon event occurs and a Democrat wins the governorship due to a corruption scandal or some other incidental candidate quality issue, Republicans would have to work in lock-step to avoid the veto pen and either deliver results or lose. One more thing - In 2002, there were 10 Democrats in the state senate. In 2008, there were 19 Democrats in the state house. Wyoming even had a Democrat governor as late as 2010! A bluer, or even outright blue Wyoming, is possible someday.