California/Seats

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Please refer to this helper page when considering races to add to the main California page.


This page is a guide to partisan leans of various seats in California. The partisan lean of a seat is the typical % of the vote a candidate will get based on their political party in a certain area. There are two standards used, the 538 standard and the Cook PVI. Regardless, in relation to one another, they give you a really good idea of what kind of candidate that area can field. Our job as progressive activists is to ensure that the most progressive candidate possible is holding every seat! For the sake of ease, we're going to use several definitions.

  • Swing Seat: These are districts that tend to vote 50-60% for either candidate. Progressives have a problem with being elected to these seats (as a general rule, Porter first was elected to an Republican-leaning district), so the focus, when considering where you should put your efforts, is on whether the progressive can be elected here. Sometimes the answer is yes, sometimes no. But in general, Republican-leaning/swing seats tend to elect either more moderate/conservative Democrats or else Republicans.
  • Blue Seat: These seats vote safely Democratic pretty much every time. If you see a seat rated as higher than D+10 on 538 or D+5 on the Cook PVI, it belongs in this category. The more blue a seat is, the higher chances a progressive candidate has of being elected. Oftentimes, in very blue seats in California, the candidates who win the primary are either two Democrats or a Democrat and a progressive third party candidate. These seats are a progressive's bread and butter.
  • Red Seat: These seats vote Republican. If you see a seat rated higher than R+10 on 538 or R+5 on Cook PVI, it belongs in this category. Democrat wins aren't impossible here, but they tend to be Blue Dogs (conservative Democrats) and very unreliable wins, or unreliable votes if they do win. If you see a seat in this category, there are most likely other races your effort would make more of an impact on.

Below are sections for the 52 seats of the US House delegation in California, the 80 seats of the California state assembly and the 40 seats of the California state senate, differentiated by whether they're swing seats, blue seats or red seats.

You may find a map of partisan leans of seats here: https://www.ppic.org/blog/racial-representation-and-partisan-leanings-in-californias-final-redistricting-maps/

Thoughts of making a fourth category for seats in CA that are so blue that they're regularly Democrat vs. Democrat/third-party?

California US House

California US House 2022 - 2030 Map: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/california/

Blue US House Seats (more than D+10): When the primary election is over, you should only list these seats under "Notable Elections" if it is either Democrat vs. Democrat or Democrat vs. progressive third party.

CA-2, CA-4, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-18, CA-19, CA-21, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-42, CA-43, CA-44, CA-46, CA-50, CA-51, CA-52.

Competitive US House Seats (R+10 to D+10): Upon the completion of CA's top-two primary election, these seats are highly likely to be Democrat versus Republican and should be placed in the "Notable elections" section if they are.

CA-3, CA-9, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-40, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-49.

Red US House Seats (more than R+10): Unless you have specific knowledge of why the Democrat has a chance of overpowering the partisan lean of this district, do not place them in "Notable Elections".

CA-1, CA-5, CA-20, CA-23, CA-48.

California State Assembly

Blue CA Assembly Seats: When the primary election is over, you should only list these seats under "Notable Elections" if it is either Democrat vs. Democrat or Democrat vs. progressive third party.

2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 37, 39, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80.

Competitive CA Assembly Seats: Upon the completion of CA's top-two primary election, these seats are highly likely to be Democrat versus Republican and should be placed in the "Notable elections" section if they are.

8, 16, 36, 40, 41, 44, 60, 61, 65, 66.

Red CA Assembly Seats: Unless you have specific knowledge of why the Democrat has a chance of overpowering the partisan lean of this district, do not place them in "Notable Elections".

1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77.

2024 State Assembly Races worth looking into:

  • Open state assembly races in blue/competitive districts - 2, 8, 13, 15, 17, 19, 36, 41, 43, 44, 52, 53, 54, 58, 62
  • Primary w/ Democrat incumbent - 11, 14, 23, 25, 48
  • Prog 3rd party running - 52
  • Only Democrats running - 50 (3 Dem Open Seat), 57 (5 Dem Open Seat), 79 (3 Dem Open Seat)

California State Senate

Blue CA Senate Seats: When the primary election is over, you should only list these seats under "Notable Elections" if it is either Democrat vs. Democrat or Democrat vs. progressive third party.

2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 39.

Competitive CA Senate Seats: Upon the completion of CA's top-two primary election, these seats are highly likely to be Democrat versus Republican and should be placed in the "Notable elections" section if they are.

6, 16, 23, 36, 37, 38, 40.

Red CA Senate Seats: Unless you have specific knowledge of why the Democrat has a chance of overpowering the partisan lean of this district, do not place them in "Notable Elections".

1, 4, 12, 19, 32.

2024 State Senate Races worth looking into:

  • Open state senate races - 3, 5, 7, 9, 23, 25, 29, 31, 35.
  • Primary w/ Democrat incumbent - 11, 27, 37.
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