Washington/Seats

Please refer to this helper page when considering races to add to the main Washington page.

This page is a guide to partisan leans of various seats in Washington. The partisan lean of a seat is the typical % of the vote a candidate will get based on their political party in a certain area. There are two standards used, the 538 standard and the Cook PVI. Regardless, in relation to one another, they give you a really good idea of what kind of candidate that area can field. Our job as progressive activists is to ensure that the most progressive candidate possible is holding every seat! For the sake of ease, we're going to use several definitions.

• Swing Seat: These are districts that tend to vote 50-60% for either candidate. Progressives have a problem with being elected to these seats (as a general rule), so the focus, when considering where you should put your efforts, is on whether the progressive can be elected here. Sometimes the answer is yes, sometimes no. But in general, Republican-leaning/swing seats tend to elect either more moderate/conservative Democrats or else Republicans.
• Blue Seat: These seats vote safely Democratic pretty much every time. If you see a seat rated as higher than D+10 on 538 or D+5 on the Cook PVI, it belongs in this category. The more blue a seat is, the higher chances a progressive candidate has of being elected. Oftentimes, in very blue seats in Washington, the candidates who win the primary are either two Democrats or a Democrat and a progressive third party candidate. These seats are a progressive's bread and butter.
• Red Seat: These seats vote Republican. If you see a seat rated higher than R+10 on 538 or R+5 on Cook PVI, it belongs in this category. Democrat wins aren't impossible here, but they tend to be Blue Dogs (conservative Democrats) and very unreliable wins, or unreliable votes if they do win. If you see a seat in this category, there are most likely other races your effort would make more of an impact on.

Below are sections for the 10 seats of the US House delegation in Washington and the 49 seats they use for the state maps, differentiated by whether they're swing seats, blue seats or red seats.

Washington US House

Washington US House 2022 - 2030 Map: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/washington/

Now, a breakdown of the 10 US House seats and what the strategies are for them from 2022 until they make new maps. Keeping 8 of these 10 seats blue is key to another Democrat trifecta in 2024!

WA-01, WA-02, WA-07, WA-09: These house seats are solidly-Democrat and are prime targets for progressive campaigns in both the primary and general elections.

WA-06, WA-10: These house seats are approximately D+10 according to the map, definitely blue enough to not generally worry about but not typically blue enough to field a progressive reliably. Proceed with caution on progressive campaigns here.

WA-08: This is Washington's only true swing seat. It should always be focused on in the general election.

WA-03: This seat tends to vote Republican, but not insurmountably-so, as evidenced by Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez winning this seat in 2022. The right Democrat can absolutely win here if the polling is in their favor and they're moderate enough.

WA-04, WA-05: These seats are solidly-Republican. Any Democrat campaigning for these seats is unlikely to make a difference.

Washington State House and Senate Map

In Washington's state legislature, the same 49 districts are used for both the house and the senate, with 25 senate seats being up every two years of the 49 senators and all 98 house members being up for re-election, two per district.

Dave's Redistricter Map of WA's state legislature: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3e3c5f5c-3a83-4847-b1d8-5328fb3b9e31

Ballotpedia pages: Washington Senate Washington House

70%+ Blue Washington State Seats: These seats are most likely to become Democrat vs. Democrat or even Democrat vs. Progressive third-party candidate races. Prime potential for progressive wins!

32, 34, 36, 37, 43, 46.

Blue Washington State Seats: When the primary election is over, you should only list these seats under "Notable Elections" if it is either Democrat vs. Democrat or Democrat vs. progressive third party.

1, 3, 5, 11, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 30, 33, 38, 40, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 49

Competitive Washington State Seats: Upon the completion of WA's top-two primary election, these seats are highly likely to be Democrat versus Republican and should be placed in the "Notable elections" section if they are.

10, 15, 17, 18, 25, 26, 35, 42

Red Washington State Seats: Unless you have specific knowledge of why the Democrat has a chance of overpowering the partisan lean of this district, do not place them in "Notable Elections".

2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 16, 19, 20, 31, 39